|
果洛翻譯公司關(guān)鍵字：lnC = a + blnY --------------------------- (2)The model problem is: although diminishing marginal propensity to consume the short term, but statistics from the long view, not necessarily declining propensity to consume (Kucinieci in 1946 his book "since 1869, the National value ", according to 1869-1938 data in the United States, proof of income and consumption: the long term, the American share of consumption in national income is quite stable, the average propensity to consume to maintain in the 0.84-0.89 range), which Keynes assumed proposition is different.We can use the "China Statistical Yearbook" in the urban per capita disposable income, per capita consumption expenditure and rural per capita net income, per capita consumption expenditure data to verify and analyze consumer demand in China affected by the degree of current income is all about.
We have according to (2) for regression analysis results:Table 1: urban and rural consumption on current income of the regression analysis
Year a bS.ED.W R2 regionUrban 0.452 0.919 0.995 0.03105 0.953 1988-1995 (2.311) (35.942)1996-2003 0.569 0.908 0.998 0.008648 3.183(3.923) (54.675)Rural 0.250 0.939 0.998 0.01644 2.543 1988-1995(2.167) (54.729)1996-2003 1.768 0.734 0.809 0.03423 0.826(1.727) (5.531)Overall, we can see that the income elasticity of urban and rural consumption is high, current income on consumption of explanatory power is still very large. But after 1996, the income elasticity of urban and rural consumption has declined in rural areas than urban areas. 1988-1995 Town of 0.919, 0.939 rural areas, that is, current income urban and rural residents increased by 1%, 0.919% of urban residents increased consumption, increased consumption of 0.939% of rural residents. 1996-2003, current income urban and rural residents increased by 1%, 0.908% increase in consumption of urban residents, down 0.011 percentage points; consumption of rural residents increased 0.734 percent, down by 0.205 percentage points. This shows, Keynes's absolute income consumption function is assumed consumer demand for China's current situation still has a strong explanatory power on the other hand shows that since 1996, current income urban and rural residents on the impact of current consumption In the fall, that is, in addition to current income than other economic variables (such as the system changes, etc.) of the explanatory power on the rise. Therefore, the impact of China's current growth in consumer demand is a major factor in the current period income, and are increasing influence of other economic variables.
Third, based on Duesenberry's relative income is assumed empirical analysisThis is an absolute income is assumed to amend and supplement. Duesenberry that consumer spending is not only affected by its current period income, but also by people around the impact of income and consumption, the consumption of so-called "demonstration"; also has its own income and consumption levels of the past the impact of the so-called consumer "irreversible." Consumption-based "model" and "irreversible", despite lower incomes, people will use savings (including savings banks, securities investment, including the general savings) to try to maintain consumption levels. In other words, consumption in the short term has a certain stability. Relative income equal to current income consumers and consumers can affect other people's income level or the highest income levels of consumers in the past (excluding the price factor) ratio. As long as the relative income unchanged, current savings and current income ratio will remain unchanged, that is, do not reduce or increase savings to maintain consumption savings to reduce consumption. According to this assumption, the relative income Duesenberry proposed time-series data on total functional:
S / Y = a + bY / Y '--------------------------------( 3)Where, S as a current savings, Y is current income; a <1 is constant; b> 0 is the relative income elasticity; Y / Y 'relative income; Y' to be able to affect consumers in other people's population and income levels or with modified price index, the consumer had previously reached the highest income levels.
(3) is a function of the form of savings, consumption and its corresponding function in the form of:
|